Kleros Foresight is a market prediction interface built on Seer, with Kleros handling dispute resolution. The main point is simple: you're predicting what percentile score Clément will give to various movies after watching them. Percentile scores are used instead of absolute ratings because they normalize Clément's assessments across a consistent 0-100 scale. An absolute rating (say, 70 out of 100) doesn't tell you much about how a movie compares to everything else Clément has seen. A percentile score does: a score of 80 means Clément liked the movie more than 80% of all the movies he's ever rated.
The core question for every market reads, "If watched, what percentile score would Clément give to the movie?" You're predicting where Clément's rating will fall on this 0-100 percentile scale. If the market currently estimates a movie at 50 and you believe it deserves a higher rating, you would predict a higher rating. If the final score lands closer to your prediction than to the market's estimate, you profit. You might lose some, but not all, of your stake if the market's estimate was more accurate.
You can look at previous assessments to get an idea of what Clément would like or dislike. This helps you make more informed predictions based on his taste in films.
You don't need to understand the technical stack to use the interface, but here's the summary if you're curious. Seer provides the prediction market infrastructure. Reality.eth handles the oracle layer; when a market closes, anyone can submit an answer by posting a bond, and others can challenge by doubling that bond. If things get contentious, Kleros Court steps in with randomly selected jurors to make the final call.
For most users making straightforward predictions, all of this happens invisibly. You just see scores, make predictions, and collect payouts.
Here's something important to understand before you start predicting: there are 16 movies in this session, but Clément won't watch and rate all of them. At the end of the around-a-month trading period, only 5 movies will be randomly selected for evaluation.
Here's how those 5 are chosen: the top 3 movies according to the futarchy market estimates get picked, 1 movie is selected randomly, and 1 movie is chosen by Clément himself (he may use the futarchy estimates as advisory). Neither you, the other traders, nor Clément know in advance which five will be chosen.
This changes how you should think about risk. If a predicted movie is not evaluated, you keep your money. Your tokens for non-evaluated movies simply redeem at neutral value, no profit, no loss. Only the five movies that actually get evaluated will determine whether your predictions are right or wrong.
If you want to be sure to make a profit or a loss from this experience, we recommend you predict all the movies available.
So when you're looking at 16 movies and deciding where to predict, you're essentially placing bets knowing that only some of them will "count" at the end.
You'll need a Web3 wallet like Rabby or MetaMask connected to Gnosis Chain.
The predictions run on Gnosis, so you'll need xDAI or sDAI in your wallet. Keep a small amount of xDAI reserved for gas; transactions on Gnosis are cheap but not free.
If you're coming from the Ethereum mainnet, bridge DAI to Gnosis Chain using the official Gnosis Bridge. It automatically becomes xDAI on the other side.