Kleros Foresight is a prediction market interface built on Seer, with Kleros sitting in the back as the dispute resolution layer. This session uses it to pick the side event Kleros will run at DevCon in Mumbai.
Seven events are pre-selected. A market forecasts how each would perform, and the highest-scoring one is what we organise.
In this session you forecast attendance. The question for every event reads, "If held, how many unique non-staff attendees will enter?" Each event has its own market, and each market has a current estimate. If you think the market is too low for an event, you predict higher. If you think it is too high, you predict lower.
The questions are conditional. Only one event will actually be held, so every market asks what would happen if that specific event were the one chosen.
The seven pre-selected events are:
Each event card in the interface has a Details section with the venue capacity, the location, and a description of what the event would involve.
Only the chosen event is observed and resolved, and only that event determines trader profit and loss. If the winning event turns out to be infeasible, the next-ranked feasible option is used instead.
This affects what you can redeem. If the event you predicted on is not the one chosen, the UP and DOWN tokens for it cannot be redeemed. You still do not lose money on them: your deposit also gave you event tokens for the other markets, and if you did not predict on the event that ends up chosen, those tokens are redeemable. You profit or lose only on the chosen event.
If you want to be sure to make a profit or a loss from this experiment, predict on all seven events.