So you've made your first prediction on Kleros Foresight. The transaction went through, and now you're staring at your screen wondering what all these new numbers mean. This guide explains what they mean and how the system works beneath the surface.
After your prediction goes through, the movie card changes. Next to the movie title, you now see "Position: $0.31." Expand the details, and you will see something like this.
Let's break this down. The 2.49 UP means you're holding 2.49 UP tokens for this movie. At the moment, those tokens are worth about $0.31. The current market price of a single UP token is $0.12.
The most important thing to remember is that the price is now $0.12, not what you paid. When you make your prediction, your entry price is locked. If you bought at $0.10 and the correct price is $0.12, you're already up. If you bought at $0.14, you lost money.
Notice that Bacurau (2019) shows "2.49 UP," while The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy (2005) shows "2.57 DOWN"; this shows you which way each prediction is going. "UP" means you predicted higher than the market; "DOWN" means you predicted lower.
Expanding the "Movie tokens" section in the Trade Wallet area reveals all your underlying movie tokens. You'll see a grid displaying each movie with a number beside it, similar to this
Movies where you've made predictions show 0.0000 tokens; that's because your Movie Tokens for those films have been converted into UP or DOWN tokens. The movies you haven't predicted yet still show your original Movie Token balance (1.2683 in this example).
This view is useful for understanding what happens at resolution. If a movie you did not predict is evaluated, those Movie Tokens can be merged back into sDAI. The 0.0000 entries are where your actual bets live. Read more about what happens when the trading period ends here.
When you predict higher than the market, you receive UP tokens. When you predict a lower value, you receive DOWN tokens. These tokens represent your position.
Token values fluctuate as other traders make predictions and shift the market. If the market moves in your direction, your tokens become worth more. If it moves against you, they lose value.
Once the market closes and Clément reports his actual score, the difference between your entry price and Clément's actual percentile score determines your profit.
Before getting into portfolio math, it helps to understand what happens to your tokens when a market resolves. Each movie market has a range of [0, 100], representing the full percentile score scale, where 0 is the minimum and 100 is the maximum.
When a movie is evaluated and Clément assigns a percentile score, your tokens redeem according to these formulas: